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Signing the Waiver
By Joshua B, aka Generallyaware
It’s been a rough couple weeks with only one or even none of my picks hitting 10 points (some coming up just close with 8 or 9). I’m not going to apologize. You signed the waiver, you’re responsible for your own teams. But I’ll admit when I made a mistake or missed a factor I should have seen on a specific pick. Come at me with specifics and we can talk. But if you think I’m going to apologize for picks not producing the points I hoped for, I think you’ve missed the point.
If you can’t start any of these players without taking possession of the pick, of your team, and of your own future, then don’t start them. Start whatever pick you have, start the guy you have a theory about. Develop a process, apply it and then tell me how it goes. Really, I want to know. I’m not being disingenuous, I hope you do and I hope you have success. I hope you write a column to share that process and lot’s of people read it. @ me so I can read it, too.
But in the meantime, the point is starting players you can look back and say you would have started fearlessly. So here’s my picks I arrived at with my process as I’ve described it in the past.
Devontae Booker, RB Denver vs New England
Sunday 11/12 @ Denver at 8:30pm
Remember the Giants game? When the Broncos were losing, they turned to Booker, just back from his injury. His involvement has grown every week in losing efforts. Look for passing game work by Booker, mostly in the second half after CJ Anderson tries to slow down the first half unsuccessfully.
- Booker is the passing down, 2min drill RB
- He has shown up in “junk time” before
- Patriots are not particularly strong against RBs, running or receiving
Adam Humphries, WR Tampa Bay vs New York Jets
Sunday 11/12 @ Tampa Bay at 1:00pm
This is a great matchup between two teams that like to give up points. Problem is that Winston is out for Tampa Bay, right? Nope. Feel the Fitzmagic! Fitzpatrick is more than competent as a fantasy QB, much like Josh McCown on the other sideline. Meanwhile, Mike Evans is suspended and Humphries looked like Fitzpatrick’s favorite target after Evans. DeSean Jackson will get his shots, but Humphries should be the possession receiver. The Jets defense is giving up the second most receptions over the past 4 weeks.
- Humphries should lead TB in targets
- NYJ allowed 2nd most catches in past 4 weeks
- Fitzpatrick an equal replacement if not improvement
Garrett Celek, TE San Francisco vs New York Giants
Sunday 11/12 @ San Francisco at 4:25pm
Play your Tight End against the Giants. I had grabbed Kittle in many leagues, but he was declared out early in the week so the Niners and Celek are going into this game prepared to be the primary TE. Garcon was sent to the IR before last week, so Beathard will still be looking for targets. Even in last week’s game when Kittle was playing injured, Celek was targeted 4 times, doubling his season total.
I actually like this play better since Janoris Jenkins is back and appears to be playing, as that should force more targets away from wide receivers and toward Celek.
- Start your TE vs Giants
- Niners low on targets already
- Jenkins forcing targets away from WRs
Jordan Matthews, WR Buffalo vs New Orleans
Sunday 11/12 @ Buffalo at 1:00pm
I just don’t understand this one. How in the world is Jordan Matthew’s under 25% owned in both ESPN and Yahoo (25%). He was 6 for 46 last week with a fumble that perhaps has dragged him out of sight for many owners. I understand the narrative of Kelvin Benjamin arriving in a trade and Zay Jones having a good week last week and Charles Clay returning this week too.
But I can spin a narrative, too. Wide receivers have terrible track records in mid season trades. Kelvin Benjamin may be a target of simple redzone plays, but he’s not in line for high volume. Clay is playing his first game after his injury and won’t be returning to his past production yet, especially with Nick O’Leary having established himself in Clay’s absence. And then there’s the matter of Zay Jones, who has been declared out for the game!
I’m also thinking that Benjamin draws more of Latimore in the Saint’s secondary, as Matthews moves around, especially in the slot. That makes Jordan Matthews a valuable volume flex.
- Jordan is still Tyrod’s #1 target
- Clay not at 100% and not alone at position anymore
- Benjamin still new in Buffalo
- Saints D has been better, but not in the slot.
Week 9 Review
Brandon Coleman 1.7pts PPR
I think everyone, even Fleener at the end, got in on this one EXCEPT Coleman. It was still the right call.
- Weak TB passing defense CORRECT Basically everyone but Coleman went off
- Consistent opportunity for Coleman WRONG not this week
Ben Watson 11.1pts PPR
This was basically everything we hoped for but without a touchdown. 7 of 10 targets for 41 yards. Not getting much better opportunity than that.
- Weakness to TEs has been exposed recently. CORRECT
- Raven offense gives TE high usage. CORRECT
- We know Ben is capable. CORRECT
Brice Butler 1.6 PPR
News that Zeke was going to be active in the game came not long after the column published. I should have known that since they use Terrance Williams much more at WR2 because of his blocking, Butler wouldn’t see much of the field. And to be honest, TWill looked great. He looked like a better receiver than Butler has in the past. I’m not afraid to start Terrance in future weeks, maybe even this week, with Zeke out and Dez hurt.
- KC is vulnerable to big plays and touchdowns. CORRECT But it was Terrance Williams
- Butler has been the better WR2 in Dallas when given opportunity. WRONG
- Zeke demands attention to open up big play. WRONG Honestly TWill looked good.
I’ll Just Leave This Here
- Why don’t people fight anymore? I just want a good argument. “Come back, where are you going?” What happened to pitting your ideas and reasoning and mental prowess against another? Why do people make claims and then just fade out when objections are raised, or worse, start attacking you on irrelevant matters without ever offering any facts or points to back up their position. You bring ideas, logic, and facts to the table of discussion. You don’t climb up on top and take a crap over it all, soiling the entire debate for all current and future participants. Put your feelings and agendas to the side and just argue your position.
- If you want to fight me about anything fantasy football, let me know. I want to do it. I’m looking to actually record such Fantasy Fights for a podcast. Not a calm, timed debate. An argument with yelling and name calling and well stated points and statistics and a respectful handshake at the end. Bring it on
Find me on the Fantasy Life App & Sleeperbot as generallyaware. Hit me up for questions, a good debate, or even better, to share a good fantasy story.