“Waiver is needed for all readers. By following this advice you confirm you have read the liability release and understand the risks and responsibilities for what may result.”
Signing the Waiver
By Joshua B, aka Generallyaware
Blah Blah Blah
Something about real life and a funny personal anecdote subtly connected back to fantasy football somehow and distilled into a profound message.
Okay then, let’s get right to it:
Week 11 Deep Starts
Bruce Ellington, WR Houston vs Arizona
Sunday 11/19 @ Houston at 1:00pm
This one writes itself. Fuller is out. Peterson will be on Hopkins most of the time and the rest of the Arizona secondary, especially with injury to Tyvon Branch, is giving up receiving points. Even when Fuller was there getting 8 targets two weeks ago, Ellington was also getting 8, and he garnered 8 more last week in the game Fuller left.
- Ellington getting targets and Fuller is out
- Arizona secondary giving up points to WR2
Marcedes Lewis, TE Jacksonville vs Cleveland
Sunday 11/19 @ Cleveland at 1:00pm
Marcedes Lewis will be revived this week. With 11 targets over their past two games, Lewis is in position to take advantage of the Browns’ Tight End weakness. Not only that, but Allen Hurns will miss this game so it will be up to Keelan Cole and the returning Dede Westbrook to fill his place. But a shift toward Lewis makes more sense in this matchup.
If you aren’t buying Lewis, check out Cole, but I’m rolling with the Marcedes.
Piling on is the latest news that Fournette is still not practicing and is essentially doubtful. Oh and it may be a bad weather game. Give me the safety net TE please and thank you.
- Cleveland weak against TEs
- Lewis getting targets lately
- Hurns out
- Fournette out?
- Bad weather
Austin Ekeler, RB Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo
ESPN 18.5% and rising
Sunday 11/19 @ Los Angeles at 4:05pm
Ekeler had his breakout game already, so this is a bit late. And while I doubt he will repeat his 2 touchdown performance, luckily for you, most other owners are also doubting Ekeler. The Chargers are clearly trying to not wear Gordon down physically, as he had started to be a weekly injury report club member, complete with limited Thursday practices. Buffalo is giving up some of the most receptions and receiving yards to running backs over the past five weeks. I think Gordon has good day too, but there will be plenty to go around as the Bills cannot stop the run ever since they traded Dareus away. Ekeler looks like he could be a Woodhead second coming in how the Chargers use him.
- Bills can’t stop RBs, especially receiving.
- Ekeler getting opportunity and producing (that means he gets more)
Dontrelle Inman, WR Chicago vs Detroit
Sunday 11/19 @ Detroit at 1:00pm
I can’t help but believe he is the WR1 in Chicago now. He had the Bye to get acclimated and came out in week 10 with 8 targets, 6 receptions for 88 yards and a 95% snap share. That’s not inconsequential. Detroit is middle of the pack when it comes to defending wide receivers, so this is not much of a vulnerability matchup play. It’s a “start a team’s primary receiver” pick.
- Inman is Chicago’s WR1
- Detroit not a WR shutdown defense
- Trubisky continuing to open up passing game
Why am I seeing Kroft being dropped on most sites? -8.5% on ESPN? -7% on Yahoo? WHY? He’s about to have his best game!
Technically, he would qualify for a Deep Start, but I refuse to believe that he is still unowned in any self respecting league that decent fantasy owners such as my readers are in.
But just in case…check anyway.
No, this isn’t a start, but keep an eye on news of Jeffery’s ankle. Hollins will be a great Deep Start if Alshon can’t play.
Tyron Smith will not be playing and the Cowboys may be struggling against an Eagles pass rush that is even better than the Falcons who had six sacks last week. Dak will be running, and not in a positive yards kind of way. Witten and Dez’s values go down while Beasley can be that quick outlet and short pass target.
Week 10 Review
I decided to go four wide with my picks last week and it didn’t go particularly well. But Celek did come through for us. However, the Tight End Deep Starts continue to be strong.
I’ve made nine TE picks in the past 10 weeks, taking a bye in week 8 when I simply didn’t see a good TE to pick. Together they combined for 120 points, with an average of 13.3pts. 17.1, 16.7, 15.3, 14.9, 14.9, 11.1, 8.6, 8.6, 4.2(thanks Jonnu).
Only Ertz, Kelce and Gronk have more than 120 points in 9 games. Evan Engram, my week 2 Deep Start, comes in at 117pts. So if you had used my TE picks, TEs you could grab off waivers, rather than one you had to spend a top 5 round draft pick on, you would have a top 5 TE for free.
Devontae Booker 3.9pts
Booker looked like he was on his way to a decent game but the enter Bronco team sputtered out, not even making an effort in the second half when I had hoped he would shine.
- Booker is the passing down, 2min drill RB WRONG Very even split between RBs
- He has shown up in “junk time” before WRONG No one showed at this junk show
- Patriots *not particularly strong against RBs, running or receiving PUSH Didn’t matter
Adam Humphries 3.7pts
Ryan Fitzpatrick seemed to forget Humphries even existed for much of this game. The game as a whole didn’t follow the script hoped for across the fantasy realm, being a very low scoring ugly game. Sometimes when you put a team with a bad offense and bad defense against a team with a bad offense and bad defense you get offensive explosion, but other times you just get bad everything.
- Humphries should lead TB in targets WRONG so so wrong.
- NYJ allowed 2nd most catches in past 4 weeks WRONG only 17 completions by TB
- Fitzpatrick an equal replacement if not improvement RIGHT I’ll stand by this one.
Garrett Celek 16.7pts
The streak is alive! One more Tight End scoring a TD on the Giants.
- Start your TE vs Giants CORRECT
- Niners low on targets already CORRECT
- Jenkins forcing targets away from WRs CORRECT no WR had more than 3 targets
Jordan Matthews 2.4pts
This game was ugly. Not sure why they didn’t use Matthews more, they clearly needed it.
- Jordan is still Tyrod’s #1 target WRONG
- Clay not at 100% and not alone at position anymore CORRECT
- Benjamin still new in Buffalo WRONG
- Saints D has been better, but not in the slot. CORRECT Which is why Crowder looks good this week.
I’ll Just Leave This Here
- Tweeted about this earlier this week, but thought I’d expand: I don’t know why we expect all the coaches in the NFL to be so much more consistently competent than we do the actual players. Over half the players who enter the NFL are gone after 4 years. And of the 53 players on a roster at any given time, only about 25-30 fill starting positions on offense and defense. And how many of a team’s starters do we consider “good” players that are dependably quality and do their job well? You’d be lucky to have 15 that aren’t JAGs. 10-15 of 53 players viewed as competent players, 20-28%, and yet we don’t think that 72% of coaches are not good at their jobs? Not to mention that the player’s jobs are far more competitive. A coach that has shown even flashes of competency can stick around for a decade, whereas a player would have been gone in two years. Unfortunately, they may not stick at the same team, they just bounce, which only furthers their inefficiency and failure. It’s okay to think your coach is dumb. This also explains why the teams with good coaches seem to do so well year after year.
- There’s something called the Pareto Principle created by an economist, by the same name, that essentially states that 20% of those working on something produce 80% of the results. I don’t think it’s coincidence that those figures align perfectly with my breakdown on the percentages of competent players and coaches. I only thought of the parallel afterwards. If you think about it, and you may not actually want to, you will probably see it’s true for your own workplace. 20% of the people have always done 80% of the work.
- Still looking for all comers for a Fantasy Fight. See a take you disagree with me on? Let’s go!
Find me on the Fantasy Life App & Sleeperbot as generallyaware. Hit me up for questions, a good debate, or even better, to share a good fantasy story.
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