“Waiver is needed for all readers. By following this advice you confirm you have read the liability release and understand the risks and responsibilities for what may result.”
Signing the Waiver
By Joshua B, aka generallyaware
Welcome to Signing the Waiver, where we sign off our rights, accept responsibility for injury, and dive in head first with weekly wild predictions for big performances by no names.
Particularly when it comes to the bye weeks, being able to accurately evaluate and predict a big fantasy performance by a player you can get for nothing is the difference between making the playoffs or not.
This isn’t a preseason draft evaluation. It’s not a season breakout prediction. It’s not even a deep sleeper . This is simply a combination of identifying match-up specific statistics, team and player tendencies, and accurately predicting game flow and how it affects specific players. These are one week throw-aways, specific to their individual situations and games. Daily Fantasy players may also take interest in these picks, as they will surely be cheap in both salary and draft formats.
A few notable examples I have pulled off in the past include:
- Picking up and STARTING Leonard Hankerson (yes, that guy) in week 4 of 2015, resulting in a 22 point game(PPR). Then I dropped him.
- Sammie Coates week 5 of 2016, for 31 points (his first breakout).
- Malcolm Mitchell week 10 in 2016 for 19 points.
For every right call, I may have several wrong. So sign the waiver, and continue at your own risk:
First off, let’s just admit that this is a nearly impossible task for week 1. I’m not trying to make some built-in excuses. I’m straight up telling you I am excused. Wait, you did sign the liability waiver form, right?
The vast majority of the information I use to deduct my one-hit wonders simply does not exist, with no historical football data for the 2017 season. In the coming weeks, we will be able to gather the needed information so predictions can improve. The bye weeks are our real target here. So with that said, here’s an irresponsibly bold group of players you can sign for $0 that I think may strike oil on Week 1:
Marquise Goodwin, WR San Francisco vs Carolina
ESPN 2.1% owned
Sunday 9/10 in SF at 4:25pm EST.
The Panthers had one of the most inexperienced secondaries last year and were abused frequently. They are hoping to improve this year, and they very well may, but Week 1 will be a learning experience. Brian Hoyer (who should be on the radar for any owners of Luck, Flacco, Tyrod or even Cam for Week 1) has played in Shanahan’s offense before in Cleveland during the 2013 and 2014 seasons. What else happened in Cleveland back then? Speedy Josh Gordon and Taylor Gabriel happened, catching big throws from Hoyer. Shanahan then moved on to Washington where DeSean Jackson was utilized as a deep threat (when healthy).
Enter Marquise Goodwin, who had some success on deep throws from Tyrod Taylor in Buffalo last year, and has been getting deep passes all spring and into preseason from Hoyer. The man is a track and field physical specimen with a sub 4.40 40yd (4.27 at 2013 combine) and burst and agility scores in the high, thin air high, percentiles.
Look for Goodwin to hit on a deep pass or two and hopefully a touchdown.
Charles Clay, TE Buffalo vs New York Jets
ESPN 3.9% owned
Sunday 9/10 in Buffalo at 1:00pm
So I’m already breaking my own rules, because this guy is not a throwaway. He’s a sleeper top 10 tight end, as long as he’s healthy. But being Week 1, now is the time to strike.
It also helps that Jordan Matthews is injured. Clay and Zay Jones are monopolizing the targets, and even if Tyrod has to sit, Peterman has shown he can hit Clay. Best of all, they are facing a Jets team that will struggle to defend the tight end. Unless you have a top 5 TE, pick him up, start him and maybe even keep him.
Paul Richardson, WR Seattle @ Green Bay
ESPN 1.6% owned
Sunday 9/10 in Green Bay at 4:25pm
I admit, with the trade of Kearse to NYJ and Lockett’s leg injury, this isn’t much of a sleeper, or at least he shouldn’t be. But he is still unproven and has a low ownership so there’s a good chance you can grab him, mostly because of the perception he is behind Lockett.
This series isn’t about just picking up players that might be valuable so they can sit on your bench, it’s about starting players for this week. But many may hold value after their breakouts in future weeks or in trades.
I’m offering a lot of pass catchers this week since the running backs are either too obvious or we have no information to suggest other back’s usage. I’ll try to get quarterbacks on the list when I see one, but these are generally flex lottery tickets and receivers are the most explosive.
At the end of every week I’ll review how the previous week’s forecast produced. I will not only give the stats, but I will be analyzing where I went wrong and maybe missed some factors, as well as highlighting patterns that proved reliable. This way we can all get better at this together.
I will also try to put my money where my mouth is in my own leagues (when and where it makes sense).
Find me on the Fantasy Life App & Sleeperbot as generallyaware. Hit me up for questions, a good debate, or even better, to share a good fantasy story.