Signing the Waiver - Fantasy Football Week 3 - Clock Dodgers
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Signing the Waiver – Fantasy Football Week 3

Waiver is needed for all readers. By following this advice you confirm you have read the liability release and understand the risks and responsibilities for what may result.”

Signing the Waiver

By Joshua B, aka Generallyaware

Stop

Playing

Fantasy

Football

Scared

Just stop it.

I think I will have to develop a fantasy football approach called Zero Inhibition, or Zero Fear, or maybe Fear0 and we can say it “Fear-Oh” and it can be the next cool thing that people say they are using while not even understanding it. …Where was I? Oh yes.

Fear.

Fear of your league-mates mocking your sit/starts. Fear of looking dumb. Fear of being wrong. “But what if my stud goes off on my bench?” Who cares that your “stud” is facing the #1 ranked pass defense and a top cover corner that he has history of disappearing around? Who cares that you have a free agent pickup on your bench facing the #32 ranked pass defense, who’s primary CB just got injured, and the receiver ahead of him on the depth chart has a pulled hamstring?

Just “start your studs,” man.

Don’t overthink it.”

Dance with the ones that brought ya.”

*Shake my head*

Stop making decisions based on things that have nothing to do with football.

The greatest GM/Head Coach of our time, Bill Belichick, is lauded for an approach with his team that seems to have contributed to some success, and yet most of the other 31 teams in the league can’t bring themselves to do it. Meanwhile, Belichick wins championships.

  • Gather talent.
  • Players earn their starting time, but any player can earn starting time.
  • Don’t worry about sunk cost. All players are the same once they are on the roster. What you paid for them is now irrelevant to their performance.
  • When it doesn’t work out. Walk away.

Belichick can trade a 2nd round pick away for a player, and then cut them straight up after the third preseason game (goodbye Kony Ealy). Cold. Calculated. Because Bill Belichick is the ultimate IDGAF.

I know it’s not easy to set aside preconceptions and emotions and the nagging need for self confirmation, but only when you set aside those worries and meditate on the pure fantasy football data can you achieve Fantasy Football Zen.

When you achieve Fantasy Football Zen, you can bench your big name player in a clearly disastrous position and put in another player. Even one of far lesser fantasy name appeal, who is in a clearly better position to perform and has proven capable of doing so. All without the worry, the fear of what might happen.

This is fantasy football, anything can happen, but what WILL happen is you will live with regret when you make fantasy decisions in fear. You will lose, you will always wonder “what if” and you will never forgive yourself for your cowardice.

Don’t get me wrong, if you make your decision with no regrets, you might still lose. But you will always be confident that you made the best decision you could. You will be able to learn from any mistakes you made in making that decision, and you will make an even better decision next time.

Play fantasy football without fear, without doubt, and without self loathing.

Put in the work, be confident in your decisions, and enjoy yourself.

Week 3 Deep Starts

Ryan Griffin, TE New England vs Houston

ESPN 0.1% (yes, that’s point one, 0.1%)

Sunday 9/17 @ New England at 1:00 pm

We’ve pretty much established already that you must start your tight end against the Cleveland Browns. So if you have Doyle, you can skip to the next pick. As bad as the Browns have been vs tight ends, there is another defense that is nearly as inept at defending them. The New England Patriots. Not only that, but the Patriot defense is infamous for trying to take away a team’s primary and secondary options. Watson may try to force it to Hopkins, but he will soon learn to find someone else to target, and he will find Ryan Griffin open in the middle of the field.

Narrative:

  • New England can’t defend tight ends
  • New England defense forces opponents to use 3rd+ options
  • Ryan Griffin is the only active Texan tight end.

I honestly don’t know how much this will truly translate into fantasy points. A stat line of 5-33-0 on 9 targets is quite possible. But I just know he will have more opportunities than most tight ends this week, at a time when the pool of fantasy viable tight ends is…getting tight.

Devin Funchess, WR Carolina vs New Orleans

ESPN 9.6%

Sunday 9/17 @ Carolina at 1:00 pm

This seems to be the popular pick among fantasy analysts this week, but I’m not going to not say it just because everyone is saying it. I’m not going to not suggest a great deep start just because my ego demands I be different. When all the data and trends we have been following so far point to Funchess having a breakout game, I’m going to tell you. Until a player is more than 33% owned I’m not going to avoid pointing out what should be obvious simply because I want to pick out an obscure player that I can brag about next week. Because this advice is suppose to be useful and you aren’t going to use crazy suggestions when there are sensible ones available.

Narrative:

  • It’s the Saints (Axiom #1). Not only that but their one decent CB, Lattimore, will provide enough resistance on Kelvin Benjamin that it will be a simple choice to take what the defense is giving them.
  • Olsen is Out. Dickson will try to replace him, but he’s not Olsen.
  • Should be a great day for McCaffery, but eventually the Saints will have to put help on him leaving Funchess open to eat some Honey Bunches of Funchess, with touchdowns.

Jaron Brown, WR Arizona vs Dallas

ESPN 1.0%

Monday 9/18 @ Arizona at 8:30 pm

I’ve been watching this one for a while, but Jaron came up clear on Thursday’s injury report. John Brown is still likely out. Jaron had a team high 11 targets last week. He only finished with 4-73-0, but the opportunity is there. Also, I’m inclined to believe defenses aren’t going to ignore JJ Nelson anymore.

Narrative:

  • Dallas secondary isn’t great
  • Jaron is getting targets
  • While not necessarily a shootout, these defenses aren’t shutting each other down.
Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @Generally_Aware. This past week I offered up a few honorable mentions that didn’t make the article and will continue to share additional thoughts leading up to the games.

Week 2 Review

It was a bit difficult writing this week’s article. Not because it was difficult to evaluate how well my picks did, they were great, but rather it’s difficult typing when you have one arm in a sling from patting yourself on the back too much.

I’ve said before I wouldn’t be afraid to put my money where my mouth is with these picks. Things got personal this week when it came down to the Monday night game and I was behind by 12.2 points in my main home money league that I commission. You see, I had benched Clay Charles in favor of one Evan Engram. Engram came through and I snuck out the victory. If anyone has similar such stories to share about how these picks have helped or maybe even hurt you, please reach out and share.

Evan Engram 14.9pts PPR

Even though Beckham played, which we knew was a possibility, he was as much a decoy as he was a receiver. Engram finished 4-49-1, tied with Odell in receptions, but targeted a team high 7 times. It’s not like the Giants are going to a run-heavy attack with their bad offensive line. So I think we can expect more good performances from Engram since Brandon Marshall’s hands don’t seem interested in snatching many points away from him.

Factor Review:

  • Odell out or limited. Marshall ineffective. Engram will be target magnet. CORRECT
  • Giants can’t run the ball, will be passing. CORRECT
  • Detroit defense has a tight end weakness. POSSIBLE

Eli targeted a tight end on 10 of his 32 pass attempts. The tight end is certainly a normal part of the Giants attack, but we should keep an eye on the Lion defense and opposing tight ends.

Phillip Dorsett 10.5pts PPR

I want to clarify what I consider to be a successful deep start here on signing the waiver. I expect double digit fantasy points in PPR scoring to be a success, more than 15 is a true hit. We show decimals simply for precision, but you can round down if yours is not.

So when one pick last week gets 9.9 points and Dorsett this week gets 9.8 points from receiving, I’m borderline irritated. But, Dorsett had one carry for 7 yards as well…that’s 10.5 points in decimal scoring. Let’s call it a success! If you’re stuck with just 9, complain to your commish, not me!

Let’s be honest here. You just started Phillip Dorsett and scored more than: Beckham, Hilton, Amari, Brandin Cooks, Golden Tate, Decker, Garcon, Pryor, Fitzgerald, Diggs and many other big names. Congratulations. You’re a genius.

Dorsett actually left in the 4th with a minor knee injury after Gronk had left as well. He could have had opportunity for more.

Factor Review:

  • “Patriots will throw deep vs vulnerable Saint’s D.” PUSH (Didn’t throw deep as often, only 6 times, 6.32% of their plays, but they produced 156yds, 4th best this week)*
  • “Brandin Cooks is too obvious a target to get them all.” CORRECT (Cooks-1, Gronk-2, Rex-1, White-1. Dorsett-1)

I think we have arrived at our first Deep Start Axiom: Start receivers vs Saints.

I will be collecting these axioms as the season goes to better help us target future picks.

Chris Carson 11pts PPR

cris carson fantasy
Courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com

Last week I wrote, “Chris Carson will have more rush attempts than any other Seattle RB.” Crazy thing is, Carson didn’t just barely out touch and out snap Rawls and Procise, he dominated touches and snaps. He had 20 rush attempts and 2 passing targets, while Rawls had 5 rush attempts and Procise had 6 passing targets.

The fantasy point result is modest, but considering the game flow and the terrible Seattle offensive line, Carson produced a 20-93-0 stat line for 4.65 YPC, adding in a 7yd reception for good measure. He is the best all around back Seattle has and worth holding onto if you grabbed him last week.

Factor Review

  • Game Flow: Seattle will dominate San Francisco. WRONG. But, the game flow was still conducive to a slow, run the ball type game.
  • Carson will run out the ball more than any other back. CORRECT

One’s I Missed

Brandon Coleman 18.2pts

I’m upset with myself I didn’t see this one coming. First of all, there’s the axiom I’ve used for years that you start a team’s WR3 vs the Patriots. Second, I’ve been high on Coleman since the off-season, grabbing him in a couple deep dynasties. He’s one to keep an eye on.

Mohamed Sanu 13.5pts

I did Tweet that he was the safest free 10+points this week on Saturday. But I apologize for not having him in the article. I saw it too late. He was one of these obvious ones that still need to be said.

But if you followed me on Twitter you’d have still gotten it.

So I take it back. I’m not sorry.

 

I’ll Just Leave This Here

I’ll share a few bonus thoughts that occur to me as I’m researching for the week, or just random observations that spring to mind.

  • Related to the above, why are players on practice squads locked on gameday? They aren’t on the gameday roster. At the same time, they aren’t listed as Inactive. That’s not cool. They should be either unlocked or inactive.
  • Am I crazy to think Jacoby Brissett is going to have a big game this week? Yeah. Probably. But I think Brissett has a big game this week.
  • Is Teddy Bridgewater’s knee healthier than Sam Bradford’s right now? It just may be.

 

Credit/Thanks to:

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Josh B

I've been playing fantasy football for a decade, which honestly isn’t long, but I have always had an affinity for patterns & predicting game flow as well as sit/starts and speculative waivers.

Find me on the Fantasy Life App & Sleeperbot as generallyaware. Hit me up for questions, a good debate, or even better, to share a good fantasy story.
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