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Signing the Waiver
By Joshua B, aka generallyaware
The season is finally rolling and we’re on to Week 2.
If you were looking for a two page story from a polished writer to draw you and make you feel like the following opinions are more valid or thoughtful than they are…well, I think you know where to go for that.
If you are here to cry about last week, you can skip to the end for the Week 1 Review.
If you are here for hot taeks on players to start Week 2, then enjoy!
Phillip Dorsett, WR New England vs New Orleans
Sunday 9/17 @ New Orleans at 1:00pm
Okay, I’m well aware this one is crazy. I’m slapping myself right now trying to wake up from this bad dream. But facts are facts: Patriots attempted the most deep passes last week (17) and the Saints gave up the most yardage on deep passes (219yds on 9 plays) to the Vikings. Yes, Sam Bradford burned the Saints deep, think Brady can’t? However, I think it’s just too obvious that Brandin Cooks gets them all. Dorsett is being forced into a role because of injuries, and as of this writing, news is pointing to Amendola missing the game. Also, Brady did attempt a 54yd pass to Dorsett last Thursday.
I expect a high scoring game, with neither team’s defense being able to consistently stop the other. Cooks will get his down the left, Gronk will get his down the middle, and Dorsett will get his down the right.
Chris Carson, RB Seattle vs San Francisco
Sunday 9/17 @ Seattle at 4:25pm
One of the big waiver targets this week that is being ignored is Chris Carson. Those in deeper leagues or more plugged in to sleeper watching will know his name. And one might think he’s too well known or owned for this column. But I looked around a few hosts, and he is still under 10% in ESPN and NFL leagues and only a third owned on Yahoo. So there’s still a chance he’s available. However, once again, this is not just about picking up players on waiver, this is about starting players.
Lacy is a bum. Rawls is still hurt. They are playing the 49ers who will possibly put up another goose-egg vs a strong Seahawk defense. Even if Carson was the clear backup running back, though he may very well be the primary, everyone knows the backup runs out the ball in a blowout. And that’s what we will have here. A complete and utter annihilation of the 49ers. Chris Carson will have more rush attempts than any other Seattle RB.
Not only that, but Pete Carroll had glowing words to say about Carson and finished by saying he is “anxious to see how [Chris Carson] grows with us and if his role can expand…”, according to 49ers.com‘s @Joe_Fann.
Evan Engram, TE New York Giants vs Detroit
Monday 9/18 @NYG at 8:30pm
In the absence of Beckham, the Giant offense had to find other targets last Sunday night. Marshall was a decoy more than anything and secondary targets like Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram were used instead. The news, as of this writing (9/14), is that Odell may miss a few more weeks. Even if Beckham does play, it will just open up more room for Engram.
Engram has a few things going for him:
He is a target the Giants clearly want to develop. They have an investment in this first round pick who is really more of a receiver than a tight end to begin with. Not only that, but the Cardinals just had success targeting Jermaine Gresham against the Lion defense. He was the best looking rookie TE last week and they will need him to continue to step up if they are going to keep up with the Lion’s offense.
This is an intersection of opportunity, need, and vulnerability. Look for Engram to rack up the receptions and get into the double digit points.
Think these predictions are ridiculous? Mad about last week? Let me know on Twitter (@Generally_aware) or Fantasy Life App (@Generallyaware).
Week 1 Review
The Good – Charles Clay (15.3pts PPR)
This was really the most obvious one and I can hardly take credit for pointing it out. I did, in fact, pick-up and start Clay in my money league. So there’s that.
The Stats: 4-53-1 on 9 targets.
Let’s break down the factors I predicted would lead to Clay being a start:
- Bad Jets defense, specifically linebackers. CORRECT.
- Limited Bills receiving options: One rookie, one injured and several other underachievers. Clay’s biggest competition was McCoy, the running back. CORRECT
- The guy is talented, athletic and a proven performer when given opportunity. CORRECT
The last point is not to be ignored. Too often we can get sucked into the game script of “bad defense + opportunity = big game” for a player who has had such opportunities before and not produced.
The Bad – Marquise Goodwin (5.1pts PPR)
I couldn’t decide if Goodwin was bad or ugly. He certainly had the opportunity, but let it slip through his fingers. Literally. A perfect pass from Hoyer deep should have been caught and could easily have been a touchdown if he simply stayed on his feet in bounds. Hoyer took another shot at Goodwin in the 2nd quarter as well. Because of the drop, I’m calling this bad.
He finished 3-21-0 on 6 targets.
- Carolina’s secondary is still suspect. WRONG
- 49ers offense will be able to move the ball. WRONG
- Hoyer will go deep to Goodwin. CORRECT
This is a lesson in the dangers of basing Week 1 predictions of a defense on last year’s performance. None of these teams are the same as last year’s. I underestimated the Carolina secondary, they performed well, or at least well enough, in conjunction with a stifling pass rush.
The Ugly – Paul Richardson (9.9pts PPR)
This whole game was ugly. Russell Wilson and the offense struggled to put together successful drives. Richardson did scrape out a 4-49-0 with a long of 28 on 7 targets, tieing Graham for the team lead. That is encouraging and he remains a rosterable player in most leagues.
- Richardson will be much more involved in offense, ahead of Lockett. CORRECT
- Seattle’s offense would be effective. Specifically an “improved” O-line. WRONG
- Green Bay’s defense would not be able to stop Seattle’s passing game. WRONG
- Seattle’s defense would not slow the Packers, forcing Seattle to pass. PUSH
The Packers never got enough of a lead that it truly forced the Seahawks to pass the ball aggressively. However, Richardson’s 28yd reception, followed by a 13yd, came on a late drive when they were finally desperate for a touchdown. Too little, too late.
Find me on the Fantasy Life App & Sleeperbot as generallyaware. Hit me up for questions, a good debate, or even better, to share a good fantasy story.