Fantasy Football Week 7 DST Stremers
Written By: Josh Crocker – Follow Josh on Twitter @jccrocker
Above the Stream
– CIN D/ST v CLE –
The Bengals have had some good defensive performances this season. The were able to stop CJ Anderson, although they did allow Siemian to throw the ball all over the field. They had a very good game against Miami and Ryan Tannehill in week 4, scoring 14 points under default settings.. This is a pretty similar matchup. The Bengals will be at home, favored by 10, and playing against a team that has lost both RG3 and Josh McCown to injuries. If you’re holding onto the Bengals defense, because they are owned in over ⅔ of ESPN leagues, this is a great week to put them into action.
Below the Stream
– PIT D/ST @ NE –
I don’t see a lot reasons for this defense to continue to be owned in a majority of leagues. The loss of Big Ben is a big deal. If the offense cannot stay on the field it’s going to put way too much strain on this defensive unit. I think we’re going to see a lot of very conservative play-calling and an offense that has trouble gaining momentum. Beyond that, this unit just made Jay Ajayi the #1 waiver claim of the week. This week they are traveling to play the Patriots, and I wouldn’t stream a good defense in Foxboro. Their ownership may only be this high because they played the Dolphins last week and I’d be willing to say that most of the people who suffered through that performance can’t wait to put the Steelers D/ST back into free agency. Enough said, drop, drop drop.
– ATL v SD –
It isn’t every week that I will suggest that you should start a defense that is one half of what the oddsmakers expect to be a 50 points game, but this isn’t as crazy as it sounds. For one, the Falcons are expected to account for just over 28 points of that, leaving only about 22 for their opponents. For another thing the Falcons will be home favorites, and that’s exactly where we want our defenses. Another couple of facts that we should pay more attention to than the over under are that the Chargers have allowed 13 sacks and 10 fumble recoveries through the first 6 weeks of football, those things are the fuel your defensive unit runs on.
I am not trying to convince you that the Falcons have a good defense. They’re 24th in terms of DVOA against the rush as well as the pass. However, they are benefitting from their offensive teammates who are playing very well. That is a tremendous benefit to their defense, as ordinary as they may be. When teams are trailing they change. The run game becomes secondary to quickly climbing back into the game. This defense is seeing a lot of teams who have to become 1 dimensional. The Falcons Defensive Line, perhaps for this reason, has actually been able to generate some pressure on the QB ranking 11th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate. Those sacks, and I remind you that the Chargers have already allowed 13, are not just a loss of yardage and down. They signify pressure on the QB which leads to fumbles, picks, and points for the defense.
Most of the time, I’m going to give you a defensive recommendation that will just not lose week. This week may be time to try something with a little more upside. I apologize in advance.
– TEN v IND –
Titans recent offensive eruption, or at least the uptick in stats for Marcus Mariota, has had a lot to do with the fact that they’ve been playing against some pretty poor opponents. This matchup is not completely different. The Titans will be playing against the worst defense they have seen in the last 3 weeks, worse than the Browns and the Dolphins. This is only going to help their offense do what they do, which is grind away the clock. The Colts are allowing more points than 27 other teams, and more yards than 29 other teams, putting them at 30th. At the same time the Titans have held onto the ball for over 33 minutes a game, which puts them at 5th. The biggest concern in this matchup is, of course, that the Colts score forty points. My point here is that a high point total will be difficult to achieve if they can’t get the Titans, who are in no hurry to get anywhere offensively, off the field.
On the defensive side of the ball the Titans are facing an offense that has allowed the most sacks of all teams with 23. Not only are the Colts bad at pass protection, the Titans have done well at pressuring QB’s with the 6th best adjusted sack rate of 8.5%. Andrew Luck should be a little worried. I hope his kidneys are ok. Besides the ability to pressure the thrower, the Titan’s defense overall is pretty solid and on the edge of being a top 10 unit (DVOA footballoutsiders.com). The Colts are not your typical incapable offense. They are, however, on the road, in a game they are not favored to win, and playing against a team whose offense is going to possess the ball and run clock, sucking away opportunity.
Written By: Josh Crocker – Josh can be found on Twitter @jccrocker
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