Written By: Josh Crocker – Follow Josh on Twitter @jccrocker
Just above 50% ownership
– Dalton at Cleveland –
I can’t help but be a little impressed with the fact that Dalton has continued to produce in the absence of his number one pass-catcher. It would be nice if I could say the same about my own fantasy teams. It’s hard to fill an AJ Green sized hole. But, while I’ve already admitted that I never would’ve seen this as working out as a positive, we have seen it happen a time or two where an offense like the Bengals who are going to target their number one pretty much regardless do ok when they stop forcing it and start playing better team ball. I don’t really expect team ball to prevail in a very tough matchup when you need a guy that can just create, but a tough matchup is not what the Bengals have this week.
The Browns are the Browns, jokes abound. I’ve seen complaints that people were putting Browns’ season tickets in their children’s Halloween candy and people suggesting that they should change their names to the Cllllllllllllleveland Brons because they’re all L’s and no W’s. They’re currently allowing the second most fantasy points to QB’s and on the season they’re allowing the highest opponent passer rating in the NFL. They’re a great matchup. If Dalton is available he’s the guy you want.
– QB Streamers –
– Trevor Siemian v TEN –
I guess it’s fair to say that after last week with Kaep and Fitz I’m looking for someone who can give me a not so scary floor. There isn’t an incredibly high ceiling, and I don’t expect Trevor to duplicate his effort against the Chiefts in Week 12, but I think he could be in line for 250 and 1, and that could easily turn into a couple.
The Titans defense, need I remind anyone, is the defense that thrust Matt Barkley into the spotlight. To be fair it may just be that Jay Cutler was the worst QB on the Bears’ roster, it’s possible. Looking back on the schedule, the Titans have allowed over 20 fantasy points to a QB every week except for 3 (using fftoday default scoring). Looking at a schedule adjusted metric like DVOA, the Titans secondary is allowing 20% more production to opposing offenses than other defenses in similar down and distance. To sweeten an already very sweet pot, in their last 3 games the Titans opponents have attempted about 45 passes a game against them. Looking at a streaming candidate like Siemian I think that’s pretty important because the fear is that they just hand the ball off 40 times and while he may not do anything horrific, he just doesn’t get enough passing volume to be worthwhile. Well, for whatever the reasons may be, opponents are passing a lot against the Titans. And, they’re pretty successful in that endeavor, in the last 3 they’ve allowed an average of 300 yards.
Vegas isn’t giving us overly exciting information about this game. They expect a total of 43.5 points to be scored, and they expect the Titans to do a little more scoring than the Broncos favoring them by a point. It’s basically a pick’em at that spread. Siemian will have to play on the road. He has had some good games on the road, against Cincinnati early in the season, and some stinkers like the game in Tampa. The same can be said for his home games. Currently there is also a 35% chance of precipitation for the game. If that number gets too high or the wind gets up around 15 I’d look elsewhere.
– Osweiler @ Indianapolis –
Oz is coming off of a respectable stat line against Green Bay in less than beautiful weather. For whatever it’s worth, I haven’t thought that the Osweiler tape I have watched personally was especially terrible. Smarter people than myself have commented on the idea that rather than being put in a simplified version of the offense, like Dak was early on, O’Brien has put a lot of responsibility on Brock to make some pretty complicated reads and adjustments at the line. So some of his underwhelming performance this year could be due to a learning curve of a cumbersome system. If that’s true, we may start to see Osweiler come into his own towards the end of the season. If he does begin to perform they way I hoped he would in the off-season, with what seem to me like pretty formidable weapons, we could have a blooming late season option. Those may be the nicest words you’ll see get written about Osweiler.
The Colts have provided a good race for anyone who has been up to the task this year. They’ve allowed a season average of 278 passing yards against and what I like even more is that they’re allowing over 7 yards per attempt. Osweiler isn’t getting a lot of passing volume, and isn’t exactly what we’d call “accurate” down field. So, if he can get some yardage racked up in a soft intermediate range passing game, that’ll help. The Colts also rank pretty low in sacks per game, so Brock should be nice and comfortable back there in the pocket trying to decide which TE he’s going to throw the ball to.
Unfortunately, Vegas is again telling us to temper our expectations here giving the Texans only 21 points in this road game. My expectations for Brock here are not sky high. If he meets 15 points I think I’ll call this box sufficiently checked. Mother nature will at least be staying out of it, this one is indoors.
– Kaepernick v New York Jets –
It’s pretty difficult to stick Kaep right back in after what has to be one of the worst games in modern era NFL QB history. The weather was clearly a factor. I’m not ready to say it was the cause, but it could’ve been a big part of what happened in that game. Things happened in this game that you just don’t see that often. Lobbed balls were just dropped, regularly. A kick was blocked for a TD. Neither QB did well. In the part of the game that Kaep played there were only 5 passing attempts, and only 4 more with Gabbert. Barkley’s play calling was a little more open with 18 attempts, and that was converted for only 61 yards. It was a bad day to throw the ball
The Jets haven’t been a target to stream QB’s against. They have allowed a few good games to upper eschalon guys, but nothing to our waiver wire crowd. Most recenty Tannehill was held to 149 yards, Flacco had nearly 250 but was picked off twice. The Jets don’t generate a lot of picks as a team, which is a small plus. On the whole I wouldn’t get excited about this spot for Kaep
My main point in including him in this week’s piece is just to say that I didn’t really see anything that suggested to me that the wheels were off. I guess we’ll get to see what happens this week, but the 49ers have at least declared him as the starter. If he gets into the teens of fantasy points, he’ll be back near the top of my streaming choices. I would hold on to him if you have him.
Written By: Josh Crocker – Josh can be found on Twitter @jccrocker