Fantasy Football Position Streaming
Written By: Josh Crocker – Follow Josh on Twitter @jccrocker
It’s looking like a very chalky week at QB. I’m ready to give you low owned options, but I also want to be clear about where I’d slot these guys in compared to the overall landscape.
Tier 1 QB Plays
Aaron Rodgers @ TEN
Ben Roethlisberger v DAL
Dak Prescott @ PIT
Tier 2 QB Plays
Philip Rivers v MIA
Carson Palmer v SF
Tom Brady v SEA
Drew Brees v DEN
Andy Dalton @ NYG
Matt Ryan @ PHI
– Jay Cutler against Tampa –
After watching Bryan Hoyer take the helm of this offense, we’ve seen that there’s potential here for a passing offense that can put up numbers. Cutler has returned. In his own words the coaches “had no choice” but to hand him back his job. And, in his first week back his team had a pretty tall task taking on Minnesota. While that performance was a whole lot of Jordan Howard r paving the way in a divisional matchup, I wouldn’t automatically expect Howard to have lesser numbers against a softer run defense. Also, in a game where Jordan Howard got 26 rush attempts, Cutler still managed to put up 252 and a TD against the 4th ranked pass defense in the league. He looked a little rusty, he had some missed throws. But he definitely seemed to have a mind to find Alshon and I have to think this offense will run well with their #1 WR getting involved. He also seemed intent on feeding Zach Miller, which I like to see. At the same time, it looked like we may see Meredith fading from his peak with Hoyer.
This pick isn’t really about anything I saw in Cutler’s tape, other than the fact that I like a QB who’s willing to look deep, and Cutler is certainly that. What it’s really about is Tampa and what they’ve been allowing opponents to do. Going all the way back to the start of the season Matt Ryan went for 334yds and 2 TDs, followed by Carson Palmer throwing for 308 and 3 TD’s. The Buccs then faced Case Keenum, Paxton Lynch, Trevor Siemian, Derek Anderson, which is why their points allowed stats aren’t higher than they are. After that, they have returned to getting demolished, first by Carr (500+ yards and 4 TD’s), then Matt Ryan again (344 and 4 TD’s), even Kaepernick had a decent fantasy day with his 84 yards of rushing. This Tampa Bay defense doesn’t really seem to be improving. You’d be right to point out that Cutler isn’t Ryan or Carr, but I’d sooner put him in that camp than the Keenum, Lynch group. I think he deserves some credit for the game he played against Minnesota who is still a top 5 defense.
– Carson Wentz –
I have watched the New York game and it didn’t have the effect of making me feel like this pick was a lock, but I still think that this will be a good spot for Wentz. Vegas has this game at a 49.5 point over-under, and we know from our adventures in daily fantasy that QB play in a game is correlated. I don’t really see the Eagles shutting down this Atlanta offense. They weren’t able to shut down the Giants, although divisional games have a tendency to get sideways. The week before they allowed 29 to Dallas. While that may not be great for the Eagles as a whole, it should prop up Carson’s day. The last time Philadelphia did shut somebody down would’ve been Pittsburgh and Wentz ended up with a 301 yard total. It’s a good thing when either game script seems to favor your result.
ATL is giving a 3.3 point bump to opposing QB’s. When we compare them to Dallas (-3.1) and the Giants (-2.9), there’s reason to think this game could be different. Recently Jameis Winston had 261 and 3 TD’s, Rodgers had 246 and 4, & Rivers had 371 and 1. The Atlanta offense is scoring the most points in the NFL and at the same time their pass defense is ranked 25th overall. A lot of teams have been put in catch-up mode and the Falcons aren’t offering a lot of resistance.
Carson has certainly seemed to have cooled since the start, but his first four games were against Cleveland, Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Detroit. It almost had to be downhill from there. He’s still willing to go deep and is completing about a third of those attempts. He’s connected to a good defense that will hopefully help him to keep this game close.
– Flacco and Alex –
It boils down to the competition. If not Wentz, then who? Your other options this week are Flacco and Smith. Flacco’s major issue this year, besides the usual inaccuracy, is touchdowns. I understand that eventually his TD rate will regress somewhat to the mean. But, I would contend that this isn’t purely normal variance in a QB’s touchdown rate. There are no red zone weapons on that offense.There is a real structural reason why Flacco only has 6 TD’s on 2,000 passing yards. Flacco, who has not been known to rush the ball, has done so twice already this year. Normally this would be a good thing but in this situation I feel like it highlights the lack of options he has. I’m just not going to stake my match-up on Flacco. The same goes for Alex Smith. Carolina is a perfect funnel for QB’s and according to the Harris Index, they’re actually giving QB’s the best games above their averages. The concussion thing for a QB, who needs to be clear-headed, scares me. Also, Alex Smith has not been good. His down-field completion rate has been abysmal. If there’s anybody who can find a way to not deliver in this situation, it’s Alex.
Under the Stream
Russell Wilson in New England
Colin Kaepernick against the Cardinals Defense
Marcus Mariota against a run stopping Green Bay defense.
Written By: Josh Crocker – Josh can be found on Twitter @jccrocker