Fantasy Football Week 4 DST Stremers
Written By: Josh Crocker – Follow Josh on Twitter @jccrocker
Under the Stream:
The New York Jets D/ST in Pittsburgh
There are an abundance of reasons to dislike this matchup. First, the Jets defense isn’t getting a lot of help from the their offense. Fitzpatrick has been throwing picks at an alarming rate and this doesn’t look like a “get right” week to me. Second, Kansas City was just blown away by the Steelers offense, and the Chiefs are a better defense than the Jets, at a bare minimum against the pass. The Jets are still a pretty respectable matchup against the run, and they may be better able to limit Le’Veon Bell, but I don’t see good answers for them against the Steelers pass attack. This is a high over under game where the Jets are projected to lose by more than a touchdown. The Jets have allowed 26 points a game as it is (sometimes due to turnovers committed by their offense) and now they are facing a good offense on their home field. Let them go, drop them, pick up one of the two defenses in this article that are actually pretty solid, and don’t look back.
1. Baltimore D/ST vs Washington
This is really not a defense that belongs on anyone’s waiver wire, but there they are, owned in about 46% of ESPN leagues. Football Outsiders counts them as the 3rd best defense going forward for the remainder of the season. That’s an amazing find if they’re available. My guess is that a lot of people dropped them because they were playing the Raiders, and I can’t say that I disagree with the move, but it’s time to pick them back up.
Besides being good, especially that D-Line, they are both at home and favored to win this week. The over under is in a nice place for a defense at 43.5, which is one of the lower totals on the week. Their opponent’s expected total is only 20,count that as another box checked. That’s pretty low for Washington’s standards, but like I said earlier Baltimore’s defense is not your average waiver wire spot start. This defense should get you through your week and may even be reusable against the Giants.
2. Rams D/ST vs Buffalo
It pains me, it really does, to pick on the Bills this way and basically suggest that they’ll be losing to the the Rams, but this pick checks all the boxes. The Rams are back at home, where they beat Seattle in Week 2. In that game they were able to pressure Russel resulting in a fumble and 2 sacks. Guess who’s offensive line is worse than Seattle’s. You guessed it, it’s the Bills (footballoutsiders.com). If the Rams are able to get the same pressure on Taylor he will make some bad decisions, or he may just be ineffective as a passer without a clean pocket. Either way it’s good for the LA defense
In the meantime, the Rams are running the ball and the clock with the 29th most pass plays and simultaneously only the 14th most run plays. They are not playing fast. TeamRankings.com puts them at the 28th most plays per game and the Bills are at 30th.Efficiency certainly trumps volume, but I don’t honk you’ll find an OC who will tell you running fewer plays leads to higher scoring games.I don’t think either team is interested in a barn-burner. The Bills without Sammy Watkins may not have enough spark to start that fire even if they did want to. On the other hand 14-17 seems entirely plausible. Vegas is apparently aware of this with the total points for the game at 40. The Rams are giving 3 points, and if we put that all together the Bills are expected to score a whopping 18.5 points.
I truly believe that the Bills are on their way up, and may even win this game, but I think the Rams defense can be startable either way.
Time for a last ditch Hail Mary?
Miami D/ST vs Tennessee
Miami’s pass rush, while not thrilling, has been able to produce 7 sacks. That’s good enough for 11th in the league.They have looked good in spurts, week 1 against an admittedly bad Seattle line comes to mind. Their defense overall is very mediocre, 21st according to Football Outsiders. So, when we say they’re bad, terrible, a mess, the truth is they that may be, but there are much bigger messes. Miami hasn’t been allowing big point games to any of their opponents except New England who put up 31. I have checked and double checked, this game will definitely not be played in Foxboro, nor will I probably ever suggest streaming a defense there. They are facing off against Tennessee. Their pass protection has allowed 6 sacks. Besides those sacks Tennessee has given up 3 fumbles and 5 interceptions. Minnesota was able to score 2 defensive touchdowns, but let’s be real, we’re talking about what the Dolphins might be able to do here. I think the answer to that question is probably hold the Titans to their customary 16 points.
Vegas has the line at a comfortably low 43.5 and Miami is favored by 3.5, just a smidge more than the typical home field goal. If my math is correct, that leaves 20 points for the Titans. I’m not telling you that the Dolphins are going to destroy the Titans and score like the Vikings were able to. I’m simply saying that as a Sunday morning late plug in, the Dolphins shouldn’t lose you the week.
Written By: Josh Crocker – Josh can be found on Twitter @jccrocker
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