“Waiver is needed for all readers. By following this advice you confirm you have read the liability release and understand the risks and responsibilities for what may result.”
Signing the Waiver
By Joshua B, aka Generallyaware
I’ve already told you how I do all this. The process I follow to arrive at these picks. You should really just be doing it yourself. And who know, maybe you’ll see something I didn’t and make a better pick?
But if you’re still here I’m just going to assume you’re reading it on a Saturday night or Sunday morning, and you need someone to start who isn’t on bye or injured and you don’t have the time to research any of it because fantasy football just isn’t important enough for you to waste that kind of time and effort on.
In which case, you probably want me to just get right to it.
Alright. Fine. Be that way. Let’s do this:
Tre McBride, WR Chicago vs New Orleans
Sunday 10/29 @ New Orleans at 1:00pm
New Orleans has given up the most completions on passes deep right (11), while McBride has all of his targets going deep right. The Saints defense has shown improvement, but I don’t think Latimore and their defense will be focused on stopping McBride. I also don’t think the Saints have difficulty scoring on the Bears. This may be Trubisky’s first real passing performance. When we last saw him throwing deep (his Monday night premier) he was throwing deep to McBride. A couple of which don’t appear in any stat sheets because they were called back by penalty if you recall. Since then he’s been reeled in and has only 23 passing attempts the past two weeks combined. I don’t think the Bears can get away with running this game out slowly.
- Still a vulnerable secondary
- Game script will demand a passing game
- McBride being targeted deep by Trubisky when he’s allowed to air it out.
D’Onta Foreman, RB Houston vs Seattle
Sunday 10/29 @ Seattle at 4:05pm
Seattle’s run defense is not nearly as stout as it may appear in the box score. They actually give up the 6th most yards per rush attempt. But due to game script teams have been passing against Seattle so the total counting stats are depressed. And we have seen them give up big runs to other big athletic backs like Murray and Hyde, as well. Foreman has been flashing in the passing game a bit too, so that opens up more opportunity.
Look for Foreman to break at least one, hopefully can score.
- Seattle Run Defense can’t stop a hard hitting big back
- Foreman better suited to exploit that
Bennie Fowler III, WR Denver vs Kansas City
Monday 10/30 @ Kansas City at 8:30pm
There’s no way he should be unowned. He proved last week even in an ugly performance he is getting the work. Kansas City is much better at defending the TE than the Chargers were, so Derby shouldn’t steal so much work from Fowler.
Sticking with Fowler until you guys pick him up.
- Chiefs giving up the 2nd most PPR points per a game to receivers.
- Sanders is still out and Fowler still the WR2
These are good players that I noticed this week that are interesting Deep Starts. Tried to get you some TE option even if none of them are official.
The Bills defense is pretty solid, but they do struggle against TE up the middle.
The Tomb Raider! Playing a Colts defense that is mediocre at best against Tight Ends.
Oakland is bottom 10 vs TEs. Problem is opportunity, not getting a big workload. Risky option.
If you agree that Dalton has a good game against the Colts then Lafell should have a good game.
No, really. If you read my rant below about Dalton, you’ll see that the Vikings will need to just keep passing against the Browns. Which should work out alright, because the Browns pass defense is suspect outside of Jason McCourty. Which…
IF DIGGS DOES NOT PLAY.
If Diggs is out, then Thielen becomes the WR1, which is not really good for him. The next wide receiver up will be Treadwell.
Week 7 Review
Jonnu Smith 4.2pts PPR
This pick came with the condition of Delanie Walker not starting. Walker did start so I’m not going to count this one officially. However I am bringing him up here for a couple reasons:
First, I sent out a reminder an hour before gametime on Sunday on Twitter, so you should follow me @Generally_Aware for more updates on picks.
Second, I wanted to highlight that Jonnu Smith is still someone you are glad you picked up and hopefully didn’t drop. Walker is walking in a walking boot for a couple weeks.
Robert Woods 10.9pts PPR
Woods finished with 5 catches for 59yds on 7 targets. He is still leading receivers on the Rams in a number of major counting stats.
- Literally most opportunity on team. WRONG Technically Kupp got 10 targets.
- When you look up “Vulnerability” in the dictionary it’s a picture of Justin Bethel. WRONG Bethel was actually benched…
- Also leads the team in receiving yards. Yes. I double checked. CORRECT Team high.
Bennie Fowler III 9.5pts PPR
Bennie simply put in the work last week. Considering the Broncos didn’t score a touchdown at all, and struggled on offense, Fowler’s 5 catches on 5 targets for 45yds was pretty good. Just a tad bit short of our usual 10pt target, but I still feel good about this one.
- Filling WR2 position. CORRECT
- Charger’s secondary is struggling against the pass. PUSH Actually improving
- Proven production with a few touchdowns this year already. CORRECT But no TD.
I’ll Just Leave This Here
So everyone is back to telling you Dalton is a good start this week. Listen, returning readers know that I of all people will support a player who is starting (opportunity) against a defense that is giving up the 4th more points to QBs (vulnerability). But there’s a final checkbox here: Production. And Andy Dalton is simply not producing.
“But Josh, he scored 28.3pts vs a bad Browns defense Week 4. That’s producing vs vulnerability!”
Ah, yes, but here’s the thing: We are comparing apples to oranges. Everyone is! Veteran analysts that I listen to all the time, who I respect greatly, who I would gladly defer to in most cases. EXCEPT when I have figured out what the itch in my brain is that tells me they are wrong.
Yes, I have put my finger on what my gut was telling me over the past few days regarding Andy Dalton. So here we go with a lengthy rambling argument against Andy Dalton that you didn’t ask for nor desired, but you are getting anyway. (It’s your own fault you’re still here, I did put this at the end, didn’t I?).
Dalton only ran up the score by passing against the Browns because the Browns actually have a good run defense. The Bengals scored 21 in the first half and only 10 in the second. The Browns scored zero. Also, the offensive line for the Bengals was struggling. Everything in that game pointed to them continuing to pass. They also did try to run, 30 times, but only for 86 yards!
Meanwhile, the Colts run defense is terrible with the 3rd most points (PPR) allowed, 2nd most in standard. The Bengals run game showed some improvement in the first half against Pittsburgh and if Marvin Lewis doesn’t want to get fired, he will give Mixon the ball in more than just two quarters.
The Colts lost competitive games to Kizer, Hoyer and Palmer, which partially explains why teams were still passing against them. I don’t think Dalton is in the category of Wilson to do what he did (27.8pts) regardless of the blowout. Dalton may be decent, 200yds and 1-2 TDs or such. 16 points at best. But the Bengals and Dalton will not continue to air out the ball once a lead is established and their good defense shuts down the Colts.
Big thanks to Neal here at ClockDodgers for his hard work and for giving me and others an opportunity and place to put content like this. #CDF
Find me on the Fantasy Life App & Sleeperbot as generallyaware. Hit me up for questions, a good debate, or even better, to share a good fantasy story.