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Signing the Waiver
By Joshua B, aka Generallyaware
I usually don’t know what I am going to write for the introduction until I start writing the rest of the column for the week. Maybe that’s just me being lazy and unprepared, or maybe it’s just my “creative process.” No difference this week.
This is our midseason. Yes, we are halfway through the fantasy regular season. So with that in mind I got a little reflective this week:
Over the last several weeks we’ve discussed fear, the ego, your second brain, and the Deep Start checklist and I really do hope it’s been edifying and helpful to your fantasy teams. I’ve had some successful picks, but also some real duds. I think it would be much easier if I just listed of a bunch of names that I though “may do well” or that I “really like” this week and didn’t have to really address any of them other than complete failures or, of course, to boast about my genius successes. But I made the choice to pick a smaller selection of players, set defined standards for expectation (10pts or more for success, 15+ for a hit) and then to actively see how I did and tell you where I failed (and succeeded) the next week. With that comes the added joy of being able to point to my words in writing when I was right, but also the added regret and doubt when I realize the terrible errors I have made.
The previous week’s review may be at the end of the article, but that’s only for you, the reader’s, convenience. I actually write the review first, before I do anything else, often early in the week. It helps me catch anything I missed, errors in reasoning or factors I didn’t consider, for next week’s picks. But it also has kept me humble (well, less arrogant) these last few weeks.
If I chart out my picks so far this season I’m only at a 50% success or hit rate. I honestly wondered if you might do as well if you picked randomly.
But I think the experienced fantasy player will recognized that it is always a struggle just to get to 50% success.
So I’ll keep plugging away at it. Likely wasting my time and energy on something I could probably program a computer to do. Bothering ClockDodgers to host and publish it. And having the temerity to post about it on social media asking people to waste their time reading it! I will continue to irritate you with my rambling introductions and random bullet point thoughts to end it.
Because I love fantasy football.
Off the Books
Here’s a few off the book picks to consider like last week, these guys are possibly available even in active leagues, even if their ownership % says otherwise:
Nelson Agholor, WR Philadelphia vs Washington
Monday 10/23 @ Philadelphia at 8:30pm
Washington’s defense is struggling against the pass. Normally Norman would take out Jeffery, giving us more confidence in targets to secondary options, but I think there will be enough to go around. Agholor is often not getting added like someone with his production should, likely because of bias from his first two seasons’ disappointments. I’ve kept my eye on him, but his matchups so far haven’t been the kind that would have invited a pick. Not the case this week.
Jordan Matthews, WR Buffalo vs Tampa Bay
Sunday 10/22 @ Buffalo at 1:00pm
Go get him now! The lone competent receiver in Buffalo was just declared healthy and will be playing Sunday. Charles Clay is still out and Tampa isn’t too bad against Tight Ends, at least teams haven’t had to use TEs since Tampa gives it up to the receivers so easily. Don’t fall into the O’Leary hype. Maybe if Matthews was out, but with him back in there O’Leary won’t get as much opportunity. Jordan should have a good game.
On the Books
Jonnu Smith, TE Tennessee vs Cleveland
Sunday 10/22 @ Cleveland at 1:00pm
Delanie Walker was added to the injury list on Thursday and is listed as Questionable on Friday. That’s generally not a good thing being added with a new injury so late. And with Tennessee getting its Bye next week, the Titans may look to sit Walker all the way through.
Jonnu has already flashed this year with touchdowns, but there wasn’t consistent targets and Walker was always there to cap his production.
IF Walker sits Jonnu should be a surprise breakout. Did we mention they are playing the Browns?
Repeat: Make sure Walker is Out.
- Jonnu to get more work with Walker out.
- They are playing the Browns.
- Mariota looked like he is capable as a pocket passer and will be more hesitant to run.
Robert Woods, WR Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona
Sunday 10/22 @ Los Angeles at 1:00pm
There comes a point where this almost starts to get boring. I mean, do we really want to just keep targeting the same defenses and matchups and trends every week? Doesn’t it get old? Where’s the creativity and fun in that?
What am I thinking?! I like to win! Target Justin Bethel!
Patrick Peterson may not even play, but like with Norman, that still just makes Arizona more vulnerable everywhere. And I bet you didn’t know Robert Woods leads the Rams in targets and receptions by wide receivers (he has 22, but Gurley has 23). Another case where the name is confusing fantasy owners. If he was a rookie or even 2nd year receiver everyone would be trying to own this guy.
- Literally most opportunity on team.
- When you look up “Vulnerability” in the dictionary it’s a picture of Justin Bethel.
- Also leads the team in receiving yards. Yes. I double checked.
Bennie Fowler III, WR Denver vs Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday 10/22 Los Angeles at 4:25pm
Emmanuel Sanders is out a couple weeks at least and Fowler will be stepping into that #2 receiver role. Demaryius Thomas is a bit dinged up too. Not a hard call here.
- Filling WR2 position.
- Charger’s secondary is struggling against the pass.
- Proven production with a few touchdowns this year already.
Week 6 Review
Off the Books
Austin Hooper 11.8pts
Not quite the breakout we were hoping for, but definitely involved. Looking good for his big date next week with every Tight End’s favorite team: The New England Patriots.
Theo Riddick 10.3pts
Well…he had more than Abdullah!
On the Books
Jalen Richard 5.6pts PPR
Well it wasn’t pretty. I don’t really understand why they don’t use Jalen more. It seemed like when they used him as the passing back at the end of the first half with less than a minute to go they hit him for a couple short passes and were moving well. Lynch can’t do that. Meanwhile, he only gets a couple carries and get’s stuffed, but two carries is hardly representative or enough reason to never hand him the ball again.
- Chargers giving up most yardage to RBs. WRONG Oakland did not exploit this well.
- EJ Manuel is not good, and is not a running QB despite what he may think. Hand it off or dump it down, please. WRONG Carr was back. I didn’t think it would matter to game plan and Richard’s usage, but maybe it did.
Samaje Perine 13.7pts PPR
I almost feel bad calling this a success, because it did not come in the way I expected. Chris Thompson was announced as the starter, which typically means little to nothing because a “starter” is just whoever is in on the first play on offense. But Thompson got the most carries (16) in his career while Perine(9) got his touchdown on a reception. This is actually quite encouraging for Perine, because I’m suspicious that Thompson can’t keep 20 touches a game up without injury. If Perine can prove capable in the passing game, an area where Kelley is adequate at best, he will earn more opportunity in the future.
- Opportunity CORRECT but maybe less than hoped.
- Vulnerability WRONG or at least Washington didn’t exploit it well.
- Production? Well if we waited for all three checkboxes on an RB, they wouldn’t be low ownership, would they? CORRECT This is where you have to take risks sometimes.
George Kittle 8.6pts PPR
Maybe I should add fine print that in case of a quarterback change in the first half nullifies a pick?
Honestly, I may have predicted the change to Beathard at QB would have helped Kittle more than hurt him. Kittle definitely was involved with his 4-46-0 stat line, but one or two more catches or a touchdown would have put him over the top.
- Weakened Redskin defense CORRECT Even the rookie QB Beathard had some success.
- Growing role and need for Kittle. CORRECT But its not as large as we hoped.
I’ll Just Leave This Here
I’ve been pushing hard for Austin Seferian-Jenkins these last several weeks. But this Miami game is his last plus matchup until at Denver(5th) on Week 14. But first its Atlanta (25th), Buffalo (26th), Tampa Bay (28th), the Bye, then Carolina (22nd) and Kansas City (23rd). Then Denver, then New Orleans (21st) and the Chargers (31st). That is pretty ugly. I think his volume will keep him top 15, but it isn’t going to be this easy with a TD every week. If you can sell him high consider it. But it had better be high. To that team with bad Tight Ends for a WR2/RB2.
Find me on the Fantasy Life App & Sleeperbot as generallyaware. Hit me up for questions, a good debate, or even better, to share a good fantasy story.