Signing the Waiver - Fantasy Football Playoffs Week 15 - Clock Dodgers
Find the latest bookmaker offers available across all uk gambling sites www.bets.zone Read the reviews and compare sites to quickly discover the perfect account for you.
Home / The Water Cooler / DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) / Signing the Waiver – Fantasy Football Playoffs Week 15
playoffs week 15

Signing the Waiver – Fantasy Football Playoffs Week 15

I’ve heard it, you’ve heard it. Heck, I probably said it. “But he’s got great upside”. Or, “he’s a safe start with a high floor”.

And I’m torn, because for the most part I think that’s the right approach. Or at least it communicates that there is some nuance. But it also has become a massive built in excuse using sophisticated language. The guy gets 2 points? “Hey, I told you he was hit or miss with upside.”

But I’m not a big fan of uncertainty. So I’m trying to articulate this idea and to quantify it into something concrete.

It may not seem particularly useful, I admit. But only when we have a more tangible grasp on ERO will we be able to start doing more interesting things with it. Such as running an entire roster through a program to optimize a starting lineup.

Lastly, I’ve moved away from the middle “Odds” column to more of a confidence rating. The ERO Low and High are more objective measurements now with the Confidence rating including additional factors such as team health, weather, and recent trends. “Mean” and “Spread” are there to give some context. “Mean” tells you that center point that I’m confident they will be above or below. “Spread” gives you an idea of how much variation this player can have.

______________________________

Devante Adams – WR – vs Carolina Panthers

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
13 30.00% 27 20 14

He was producing as well as Nelson with Rodgers and has been the team’s WR1 with Hundley. Think Adams is safer than Nelson but with as good, if not higher, ceiling.

Jordy Nelson – WR – vs Carolina Panthers

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
8 30.00% 23 15.5 15

Had to approach Jordy a bit differently and almost treat his first half of the season with Rodgers as a season of its own, with its own variance separate from the Hundley era. When you adjust for QB, Nelson pops out again as a very safe yet very explosive start. He’s not hurt or coming off injury, Rodgers is. And Carolina is giving up the most points to receivers over the last 5 weeks.

AJ Green – WR – vs Minnesota Vikings

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
11 20.00% 25 18 14

It’s easy to forget sometimes just how high Green’s ceiling is. It’s not always as flashy as Julio’s big games, but it’s likely more common these days. A ridiculously high floor and ceiling. Even depressed by matchup, you still need to play him over most. Xavier Rhodes’ coverage may slow him a bit, but he only needs a few big plays and Dalton isn’t afraid to give Green a shot.

Michael Crabtree – WR – vs Dallas Cowboys

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
7 20.00% 19 13 12

Two desperate teams with decent offenses and struggling defenses? Yes, please. Amari Cooper was just declared out as well.

Marquise Goodwin – WR – vs Tennessee Titans

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
6 20.00% 18 12 12

Houston’s defense hasn’t actually been as terrible as advertised lately. But Goodwin’s opportunity and production with Garoppolo raise his floor. High floor, high ceiling.

Robert Woods – WR – vs Seattle Seahawks

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
6 20.00% 21 13.5 15

As long as he is healthy, Woods should be able to produce solid points against a weakened Seattle defense. Safe play

Rishard Matthews – WR – vs San Francisco 49ers

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
6 -20.00% 16 11 10

The Niners seem to be playing with pride lately, turning their defense around against wide receivers. I think this is a rough game for the Titans.

Dez Bryant – WR – vs Oakland Raiders

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
9 10.00% 18 13.5 9

One more week without Zeke but the Cowboys are in “must win” territory this week already. As the offensive line is recovering, so is Dak and his ability to get the ball to Dez.

Jamison Crowder – WR – vs Arizona Cardinals

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
2 30.00% 14 8 12

Jamison really put ERO to the test with a range of unusual circumstances. I actually think his ceiling is higher than the formula is outputting, and as such I’m confident of him exceeding the mean. Peterson will not be able to follow Crowder everywhere, likely staying on someone like Doctson. Arizona has very low points allowed to wide receivers, but most of it is to team’s WR2 and WR3.

Devin Funchess – WR – vs Green Bay Packers

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
11 10.00% 23 17 12

Green Bay is giving up the 3rd most points to wide receivers over the past 6 games. With Rodgers returning and looking to get the Packer offense humming again, the Panthers may need to keep up.

Doug Baldwin – WR – vs Los Angeles Rams

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
6 10.00% 17 11.5 11

I don’t see how the Rams will be able to stop Baldwin. At least in the 4th quarter.

Mike Evans – WR – vs Atlanta Falcons

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
12 -10.00% 23 17.5 11

Look, just because I think Evans willl get less than 17.5 points does not man we can’t expect a solid start. Still a safe floor play with great upside.

Alvin Kamara – RB – vs New York Jets

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
10 20.00% 27 18.5 17

He’s back, he’s healthy, and they’re playing the Jets. To be fair, the Jets are actually pretty good on running defense, so maybe Kamara gets used rather than running Ingram into the line repeatedly.

Jay Ajayi – RB – vs New York Giants

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
9 1.00% 16 12.5 7

Even with Foles at QB, there’s too many mouths to feed and not enough incentive to run him heavily. Giants run

Joe Mixon – RB – vs Minnesota Vikings

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
5 10.00% 12 8.5 7

Cincinnati didn’t look like a team that wanted to play last week. If they keep this up, even Mixon won’t be able to save them. The Viking defense may not be the best but they are competent.

DeMarco Murray – RB – vs San Francisco 49ers

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
5 1000.00% 15 10 10

San Francisco doesn’t deserve the reputation for a bad run defense that it had in the first half of the season. They have the 3rd fewest points per game given up to running backs over the past five games. With the Titan team as a whole struggling, Murray is not what I call safe.

Christian McCaffery – RB – vs Green Bay Packers

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
11 10.00% 22 16.5 11

I’m aware of what Stewart did, but CMC is going to be needed more this week as the Panthers try to keep up with Rodgers and the Packers as they take advantage of the Carolina secondary.

Mike Davis – RB – vs Los Angeles Rams

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
7 50.00% 15 11 8

I just don’t think this range is very high and I can easily see him reaching 15 points against a weak Rams running defense.

Alex Collins – RB – vs Cleveland Browns

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
6 40.00% 20 13 14

I think the Ravens will take and hold the lead with plenty of running out the clock with Collins.

Tyrod Taylor – QB – vs Miami Dolphins

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
11 -20.00% 20 15.5 9

Tyrod returns at home to play a surprisingly stiff defense in the Dolphins. I’m more likely to recommend the Miami defense than Tyrod.

Nick Foles – QB – vs New York Giants

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
11 -10.00% 28 19.5 17

Hard to get a bead on this guy, and had to use stats that are several years old just to get a baseline idea. In the end, he won’t hit that ceiling, but if you’re starting Foles you will be ok with just fine, hanging out around his mean.

Blake Bortles – QB – vs Houston Texans

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
12 20% 23 17.5 11

Bortles and the Jaguars may be without Fournette this week. If so, Bortles will be in position to produce.

Drew Brees – QB – vs New York Jets

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
18 10.00% 24 21 6

If there were ever a game for Brees to redeem himself, it would be this week. Possible pass funnel here with the Jets strong running defense.

Alex Smith – QB – vs Los Angeles Chargers

ERO Low Confidence ERO High Mean Spread
12 -10% 26 19 14

The Chargers’ defense should not be underestimated, add to that the Chargers being capable of quickly taking advantage of the game. Smith may either revert to scared Smith, or throw INTs with aggressive Alex.

Josh B
Follow me

Josh B

I've been playing fantasy football for a decade, which honestly isn’t long, but I have always had an affinity for patterns & predicting game flow as well as sit/starts and speculative waivers.

Find me on the Fantasy Life App & Sleeperbot as generallyaware. Hit me up for questions, a good debate, or even better, to share a good fantasy story.
Josh B
Follow me

football fantasy podcast

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *