Dynasty ADP – Most Overdrafted QB’s in 2017
(- 4 QB’s that outperformed their ADP, and 4 that didn’t live up to expectations -)
Being an NFL QB is a tough job. The success or failure of your team will be largely hung on you. And then, once an idea has been formed about how #good or #bad you are at football it seldom changes. QB’s are not islands. They are dependent on an offensive line, their receivers, coaching, play calling, and game script. What we see on the field is an end product, the result of all these factors coming together. The truth is we may never get to the bottom of good or bad. But, we can see very easily who is producing QB1 weeks and who isn’t. So, I took a look at ADP from DynastyLeagueFootball.com for the month of December. I compared that to a simple ranking of QB’s by the number of QB1 and QB2 weeks they produced in 2017 (using QB2 weeks as a tie-breaker between QB’s with the same QB1 weeks). I defined a QB1 as the average score of the 12th overall QB from each week. I prefer having a set score (20.8 FP’s) so that we know exactly what we’re saying about a player.
(- QB’s that ranked higher in QB1 weeks than ADP -)
Blake Bortles ADP QB 30, 4th Most QB1 Weeks
Blake is the poster-boy for a QB who has just been tagged as not #good. And, it’s not hard to understand why. He has a reputation for throwing it either to the wrong team or no one at all. But despite any of this Mr. Bortles also scored among the top 12 QB’s 8 times. That is the same number of QB1 weeks as Tom Brady and fewer than only Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz. Moreover, many of his more successful weeks look to be pretty predictable. Bortles was a QB1 against Indianapolis twice, Houston, & San Francisco. He also gave owners a handful of less predictable 20 plus point weeks against Arizona, Seattle, Baltimore, and the Chargers. So in a pinch or an a bye week, you could’ve turned to Blake Bortles, even if his matchup wasn’t perfect. Also, the Jaguars are an AFC South team. They are going to get to play the Colts and the Texans twice a year, every year. Isn’t picking a player based on the idea that they’re likely to have a handful of good matchups as valid as picking players that are #good or #bad?
I’m not making the case that Blake Bortles is good. I’m making the case that we should draft players in good situations. He is playing on a team that has an elite defense, which will often put him in favorable scoring situations. Despite the Jaguar’s reputation for being a run first team, Bortles attempted the 11th most passes in 2017. And, he’s attempting those passes, largely, in game scripts that are neutral or favorable. This has a lot to do with Blake’s career low 13 INT’s in 2017. Bortles only threw 4 INT’s when his team was leading or tied.. As long as his situation stays the same I think we’ll see Bortles be a viable fantasy asset, good or not.
Case Keenum ADP QB 29, 14th Most QB1 Weeks
I would say Keenum’s ADP reflects a lack of job security. Keenum wasn’t the starter his team came into the season with.They may have no commitment to him whatsoever. But his play has been hard to ignore. His True Passer Rating, according to playerprofiler.com, has him as the #11 QB. Not bad at all for a backup. If the Vikings have anything close to success in the playoffs I think they’ll have a hard time going away from Keenum.
As a fantasy asset his 6 QB 1 weeks are less than what you’d like to see from your QB1. So, I would advocate using Keenum as a second option, and when he’s in a good spot he probably won’t let you down. His ADP is past pick 200. You’ll be hard pressed to 6 usable weeks from anything in that range. Currently, Keenum is being drafted behind, but had more QB1 weeks than: Phillip Rivers, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Mitch Trubisky, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, & Marcus Mariota. I’m just assuming he’s the incumbent, he’s not that expensive anyways.
Ben Roethlisberger ADP QB 23, 11th Most QB1 Weeks
Ageism in Dynasty FF is a real thing. It really is. But I have to admit I kind of buy into it here. If the rumors are true that Roethlisberger is in such bad shape that he hasn’t been able to practice for some time now, it’s safe to say he won’t be playing long.
But, let’s just treat this as objectively as we can here. Ben Roethlisberger was a QB1 6 times. When he wasn’t a QB1, he was a QB2, with only 2 games below 15 points. If you’re playing in a SuperFlex Dynasty league and need a cheap QB2 I think Roethlisberger would be a pretty good low cost option. There is definitely a chance that Ben is not playing in the NFL by the start of next season. This about looking just at production and how it lines up with ADP. None of us really knows what the future holds for Roethlisberger. If he’s playing I have to think he’ll outperform QB 23 again.
Drew Brees ADP QB 17, QB1 7th Most QB1 Weeks
There are things we are used to in fantasy football. The Browns are a bottom 5 team. The Patriots are running laps around the rest of the league. Drew Brees is going to throw for 5,000 yards. And then the unthinkable happens. The Saints get a defense. Their backfield, which has been productive already, gets an athlete like Alvin Kamara. So, Brees didn’t have to be Brees. But he’s still the same guy. His completion percentage is still impossibly high, #1 in the league when you factor out unpressured throwaways and drops. He’s even #1 on deep ball completion. He’s just not going to throw the ball 40 times a week.
Unlike Big Ben, I don’t see any waving red flags that tell me this should only be a one year investment. If anything, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see the occasional reversion to 5,000 yard Brees. Injuries happen. Game scripts can be unpredictable. Right now the Saints are getting to play the game on their terms, but if things get out of hand I think Brees is more than capable of slinging it. And, he’s being drafted behind guys like Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, and completely unproven assets like Mahomes. It doesn’t get more “proven” than Brees.
(- QB’s that ranked higher in ADP than QB1 weeks -)
Mitch Trubisky ADP QB 19, QB1 37th Most QB1 Weeks
If you are playing 1QB, I just don’t really see the reason to go after a player like Mitch Trubisky. I’m not even going to attack this from the angle that I don’t think Trubisky is talented. This, for me, is completely about the cost. I’m not sure that Trubisky is better, or will ever be better than Dalton, Keenum, Bortles, Eli, or Alex Smith. Why is it that a fantasy football player needs to incubate a player like this when cheaper and more productive players are out there?
If you’re playing 2QB or SuperFlex, I understand that you are forced to incubate players because there is no supply and the cost of acquiring them is through the roof. Even in that situation I think I would rather spin the 1 year rental roulette wheel for a QB2 as long as I can. Give me a year of Ben Roethlisberger, and let me incubate RB and WR prospects.
Matt Ryan ADP QB 14, QB1 25th Most QB1 Weeks
Just to set the table, Matt Ryan had fewer QB1 weeks than Eli Manning, and Eli Manning was benched. To be completely fair, Matt Ryan had a lot of QB2 weeks, where Eli was either hot, or not. So, if what you’re looking for in a QB is 17-19 points, Matt Ryan can give you that. But Matt Ryan lives in a world where Matthew Stafford, Drew Brees, and even Tyrod Taylor exist. He just doesn’t offer me anything that I don’t think I can find elsewhere for less.
Derek Carr ADP QB 12, 23rd Most QB1 Weeks
For a few weeks this year Derek Carr was the highest paid player in the NFL and the takes came pouring in. The Raiders opened against the Titans and Jets, and were looking pretty good. And then they lost to the Redskins, and the Broncos, and the Ravens, and the Chargers. This was the story of the Raiders’ season. Derek Carr when leading had a 68% completion percentage, 7.83 AY/A, and a 95.8 QBR. Derek Carr when trailing had a 58.99 completion percentage, 6.22 AY/A, and an 83.1 QBR. Carr threw 132 balls while leading, and 278 (over twice as many) while trailing.
The real problem is, I can’t say that the Raiders are going to get a defense any time soon, which would help the always playing from behind problem. I surely can’t say that the Raiders are going to stop playing the Broncos, Chargers, and Chiefs twice a season either.
According to DLF ADP, Derek Carr is drafted ahead of 21 QB’s. Three of those do not have starting jobs. Three suffered or are coming back from major injuries. Fifteen remain. Derek Carr had fewer QB1 weeks that 11 of the 15 players he was drafted ahead of. That is the definition of over-drafted.
Dak Prescott ADP QB 6, 13th Most QB1 Weeks
All the way up at QB 6 is where we find Mr. Prescott. Dak is just behind Andrew Luck and ahead of Tom Brady and Cam Newton. Cam and Brady had 7 and 8 QB1 weeks to Dak’s 6. In terms of top 12 weeks this year, Dak is more like Jared Goff and Case Keenum than the plug and play QB1 a person is hoping for when they draft a QB that high.
Dak had only one 300 yard passing game, and averaged only 206 passing yards in 2017. He does offer about 20 yards per game in rushing, and scored 6 rushing TD’s. Those really aren’t bad numbers, they’re just over-priced. That rushing floor and similar overall production is available much later in Tyrod Taylor. Taylor rushed for more yards per game, and on the year had only one less top 12 game, 90 picks later. Tyrod has some obviously concerning questions about his future job status that Dak does not, but nothing about Dak’s 2017 season justifies his price tag.
DLF Dynasty ADP 1/07/18
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