Adjusting Expectations: Fantasy Football PPR Lineup Tool Week 4 - Clock Dodgers
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Adjusting Expectations: Fantasy Football PPR Lineup Tool Week 4

Adjusting Expectations

By: Josh Crocker

harris index clock dodgers ppr chart

First of all, a  big thanks to Christopher Harris for the idea. Harris has been putting out his “Harris Index” for years and this is the same concept. It is a tool I’ve used and liked, and wanted one for PPR leagues. That’s what this is.

What is this?

Besides a big jumble of numbers, this index compares each player’s performance to their own average. So if player X averages 10 points per game (PPR), and scores 12 this week, that is recorded as a +2. All of those scores are compiled each week (3 so far) and assigned to the player’s opponents. So if player X mentioned above is the RB1 on his team, and he plays the Falcons, the Falcons allowed a +2 from the RB1 that week. After 3 weeks they may have allowed +2, +3, and +4 from the RB1’s they faced. Their average allowance would be a +3. On average, they have allowed the opposing team’s RB1 to score 3 points above each of their own averages. These scores are provided for QB, all RB’s together (RB), the team’s RB1 (snap leader), pass catching RB’s (RBPC), TE’s, all WR’s (WR), and the WR1’s, 2’s and 3’s, all by snap count.

How do I use this?

In theory, this allows us to take a player’s rolling average (will be “rolled” every 5 weeks) and add or subtract what his opposing team’s score is for his position. Let’s say you’re debating about starting Andy Dalton or Matt Ryan. Dalton’s avg is about 12 and he’s facing the Browns who are a +8 against the QB. We might expect about 20 from Dalton. Ryan’s average is just under 20, but he’s facing a Bill’s D that’s holding QB’s to 4 points less than their average. We might expect to get about 16 from him. Dalton may be the way to go this week. That being said I don’t actually use it that way. I really just look at the green and red and use that to make decisions on the margins.

It’s also good to put a number to “great matchups”. For example, we’ve heard a million times that the Saints are a good matchup but, how good? And, is it good for everyone? Well, the data shows only a modest bump so far this season for QB’s. The main benefits have gone to running backs. On the other hand we’ve all heard that Denver is a matchup to avoid. But the data shows us that so far, this year, they haven’t had a significant impact on the players they’ve faced. There are, of course, lots of other things to consider. Dez Bryant and Keenan Allen got by against the Broncos with volume. What this index does is give us an unbiased look at what has actually happened this year.

– Quick Takeaways –

Upgrade:

QB:

  • Andy Dalton– It’s the Browns, and he has a new coordinator
  • Cam Newton- Dare I say he gets it on track?
  • Eli Manning – And if Eli has a big game…
  • Deshaun Watson – Especially if he can get the ball out of his hand

RB:

  • LeSean McCoy
  • Saints RB1-my guess is Ingram, although he hasn’t consistently led the team in snaps
  • Christian McCaffery, and if they’re leading J. Stew. I’m a lot more comfortable with CMC
  • Fournette, Jags and Jets looks like a positive game script to me

TE:

  • Jesse James, he’s actually getting decent targets and has always been a high snap count guy
  • Kroft for the Bengals. Kroft took 98% of snaps in Eifert’s absence
  • Brate, Brate, Brate
  • Ryan Griffin, with CJ out he could have another big week

Downgrade:

QB:

  • Matt Ryan– it’s not 2016
  • Kirk Cousins– I wouldn’t be looking for a repeat after his game against Oakland who was a +5 to this week against KC who is a -6

RB:

  • Devonta Freeman– Buffalo held CJ Anderson to 9 points below his 3 week average. Powell and Charles have been able to maintain their performances against Buffalo so if he gets anything going it may need to be though the air.
  • Murray and Henry– Houston did allow a 21 point game to Fournette so it isn’t hopeless, but I would temper expectations.
  • Washington TE, whether it’s Davis or Reed I don’t think they’re in for a big week against KC
  • Detroit Wideouts will probably not be winning your week against the Minnesota secondary. But they’ve been a little more kind to WR3’s. Probably a small sample, but maybe we’ll see another Golladay TD

Think before benching:

  • Doug Baldwin– While the numbers don’t look fantastic against the Colts, it’s mostly a result of underwhelming games from Fitzgerald and the Browns. I wouldn’t count him out.
  • Amari Cooper– With Crabtree banged up Amari could be the focus of the defense, or the recipient of a larger piece of the pie. Dez and Keenan Allen have been ok against this defense with volume, and Amari may be getting that.
Josh Crocker
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Josh Crocker

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Josh Crocker
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